More than a fantasy

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Bailey Smith (12), Nyenlla Fontenot (12), Tram Le (11), and Harry Arcamuzi (12) debate who to start this week in their fantasy league.

Article was written prior to the first week of the 2015-16 NFL season.

Everybody rejoice. The NFL is back.

America’s favorite professional sports league has returned for another season and with it comes another year of fantasy football.

Fantasy sports allow users to compete with each other by drafting a team of professional superstars. The better those players do in real life, the more points their owners get per week.

Modern fantasy sports began in 1980 with a fantasy baseball league where scores were tallied by hand. With the advent of computerized scoring systems, more and more sports have gained fantasy followings. Today, fantasy football is by far the most popular fantasy sport in America.

Last NFL season saw the rise of many surprising superstars. The two most dominant running backs (fantasy football’s most important position), Le’Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers and DeMarco Murray of the Dallas Cowboys, were both drafted, on average, in the second round of fantasy drafts (all Average Draft Positions, or ADPs, courtesy of ESPN.com). Meanwhile, last year’s consensus number one pick, the Minnesota Vikings’ Adrian Peterson, was suspended for the entire season. Rookie receivers such as Odell Beckham, Jr., and Mike Evans, of the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively, wildly outperformed their ADPs and will be worth first and second round picks this upcoming season.

So the question remains: who will this season’s sleepers and busts be? Here are my picks.

QUARTERBACK:
Sleeper: Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles

Bust: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Does Bradford still count as a sleeper? Ranked as ESPN’s 14th best projected quarterback this year, Bradford was unstoppable during the preseason. The Eagles, under coach Chip Kelly, run more plays than any other team in the NFL by a wide margin, meaning more passes and touchdowns for Bradford. Meanwhile, Cam Newton, ESPN’s eighth best projected quarterback for the upcoming season, barely cracked the quarterback Top 15 last year and will be without star wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin for this entire season. Stay away from Newton if possible.

RUNNING BACK:
Sleeper: Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bust: LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

Yes, Bills coach Rex Ryan loves to run the football. Yes, the Bills are starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. And no, I don’t think it matters. The Bills offensive line is far worse than the Eagles’, and McCoy’s regression last year was obvious. In Tampa, the artist formerly known as the Muscle Hamster looks like he’s ready for a resurgence. After two mediocre seasons, Martin was still able to keep the starting job in Tampa away from young gun Charles Sims. This preseason, Martin looked like he was back in business.

WIDE RECEIVER:

Sleeper: Brian Quick, St. Louis Rams

Bust: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

A far deeper cut than my last two sleepers, Quick is ranked as ESPN’s #55 receiver this season. And while I don’t think Quick’s a stud by any stretch of the imagination, somebody has to catch footballs in St. Louis, right? Nick Foles was a product of Chip Kelly’s system in Philly, and probably is not going to be very good in St. Louis, but Quick is going to be the number one guy for the Rams and should produce. Tate, ESPN’s #21 receiver, put up big time numbers last season, but most of them happened when superstar human being Calvin Johnson missed time with an ankle injury. I can only see Tate’s numbers repeating if Megatron can’t stay healthy.

TIGHT END:

Sleeper: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bust: basically everybody

As any true fantasy player knows, tight end is the hardest position in the league to nail. Production from the tight end slot is always random and unpredictable, so if a stud like Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham doesn’t fall to you, just wait until everybody else in your league has a starter there and then take a flyer on a young guy like Austin Seferian-Jenkins. ASJ is no guarantee, but every rookie quarterback, even Jameis Winston, needs a security blanket at tight end. Seferian-Jenkins is raw, but could see a lot of red-zone looks this year.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS (D/ST):

Sleeper: Kansas City Chiefs

Bust: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks’ D/ST isn’t so much a bust as it is a precautionary tale. Seattle clearly has the league’s best defense, but Seattle’s ADP falls in the sixth-round for standard 12-team leagues. Don’t do that to yourself. Be smart, as fantasy defensive success is often random, and draft your defense in the second-to-last round. The Chiefs, for example, aren’t a terrible choice, as edge rushers like Justin Houston and Tamba Hali pressure opposing quarterbacks while DeAnthony Thomas should be good for a couple return touchdowns this season.

KICKER:

Sleeper: Zach Hocker, New Orleans Saints

Bust: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots

Draft your kicker in the last round. Gostkowski, per ESPN, has an eighth-round ADP. Kicker success is directly correlated to offensive success, and high-scoring offenses are plentiful in the NFL. Instead of blowing an early pick on a kicker, take a chance on somebody like Hocker, a young, unproven player with a good offense.

DEEPER CUTS:

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (ESPN #27 QB); Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos (#48 RB); Brandon Coleman, New Orleans Saints (#67 WR); Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills (#24 TE); Buccaneers D/ST (#22 D/ST)

Ty-God or bust, baby.